Fight for control as Medvedev steps up

By Neil Buckley in Moscow

Vladimir Putin, the outgoing president, is to be confirmed on Wednesday as prime minister – the role Mr Medvedev, 42, has promised to give his mentor.

Mr Putin, who at 55 is still at the peak of his powers and popularity, will also become chairman of United Russia, the dominant political party. With little ideology beyond loyalty to Mr Putin, the party has overwhelming majorities in both houses of parliament and most regional governments.

Boasting almost 2m members, including about three-quarters of the regional governors, United Russia is the country’s first mass party since the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Some observers suggest Mr Putin will, like the Communisty party general secretary in Soviet days, be the real leader – reducing Mr Medvedev to a largely ceremonial role. Critics charge Mr Putin with preparing to serve a “de facto” third presidential term.

“What is more or less obvious is that Mr Putin is going to preserve a great amount of power, particularly in running economic and domestic policies,” says Yevgeny Volk from the Moscow unit of the Heritage Foundation, the free-enterprise think-tank.

Mr Putin appears almost certain, at least initially, to be the senior partner in what he and Mr Medvedev have called the “tandem” that will run Russia. The question is whether Mr Putin will over time allow Mr Med­vedev to become the more influential of the two.

Since first hinting last October that he might become prime minister, Mr Putin has kept a pledge not to change the constitution to give himself more powers.

That said, he has bolstered his new role through tinkering. By presidential decree, Mr Putin has shifted responsibility for assessing the performance of Russia’s 85 powerful regional governors from the Kremlin to the government.

Since Mr Putin abolished elections for governors in 2004 they have been nominated by the Kremlin; now they will continue to answer to him as prime minister. Local governments, meanwhile, have been made directly answerable to regional governors.

Mr Volk says that creates a tough new “vertical of power” reporting to the prime minister.

Rumours suggest Mr Putin will also bring under government control seven presidential envoys he created in 2000 with responsibility for superdistricts encompassing a dozen or more regions.

But Mr Volk notes that, unlike a Soviet general secretary, Mr Putin will not be commander in chief of the armed forces or responsible for security issues and foreign policy, at least according to Russia’s constitution. All those are presidential competences – guaranteeing an important role for Mr Medvedev and ensuring Mr Putin cannot rule alone.

Alexei Makarkin of the Centre for Political Technologies, a Moscow think-tank, believes initially all big decisions will be made by agreement between prime minister and president.

“But then it’s possible that, gradually, the position of the president will strengthen because there exists in Russia the factor of the institution of the president, and traditional respect for the office of the president,” says Mr Makarkin.

Others agree that, once in office, Mr Medvedev will realise the extent of his powers and succumb to temptations to bolster his position. Mr Putin, suggests Mr Makarkin, will also not want to undermine the office of president – not least since he wants to be able to one day return as head of state.

All of which opens the way for possible clashes. One early test could be spiralling inflation, which hit 14 per cent in April.

“Mr Medvedev will not want to take responsibility for skyrocketing inflation,” says Mr Volk. “So who is to blame? The government – the prime minister? So this could become a source of tension and the outcome of this tension is unclear.”