Turkey

A threat of turmoil in Turkey

Considering a ban on the ruling party

TURKEY edged towards prolonged political and economic turmoil on Monday March 31st after the country's most senior court unanimously agreed to consider a case calling for the banning of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party and for the prime minister to be barred from office.

The decision by the Constitutional Court could lead to a dangerous escalation in tensions between the AK party, with its roots in Islam, and its secular detractors in the army and the judiciary, who accuse the party of leading the country towards sharia rule.

In a 162-page indictment AK is accused of becoming “a centre for anti-secular activities” and the prosecutor calls for 71 of the party’s officials, including the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to be banned from politics for five years. The court, which is dominated by secular judges, voted without exception to consider the case. A majority of the judges also agreed to hear similar charges against the president, Abdullah Gul.

Mr Gul, who began politics in an overtly Islamist party, said the decision came as no surprise and promised to “carry on with business as usual.” The first signs of the case came at the start of the year after AK set out to ease a strict ban on the wearing of Islamic headscarves in universities. That provoked uproar among secular university rectors, who called it an assault on Ataturk's republic. It was cited as evidence in the prosecutor’s indictment along with various comments made by Mr Erdogan when he criticised restrictions on religious garb.

Turkey has shut at least four pro-Islamic parties since 1970. AK was formed by a group of moderate Islamists led by Mr Erdogan who came to power five years ago pledging to lead Turkey into the European Union. During its first term AK enacted a raft of radical reforms that persuaded EU leaders to open long-delayed membership talks. These, along with a strong economic record, helped AK to return to office last year with an increased share of the vote.

Western observers say the case against AK is unabashedly political and could further dampen Turkey's hopes of joining the EU. “In a normal European democracy, political issues are debated in parliament and decided in the ballot box, not in the courtroom,” said the EU's enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn.

The case may be an act of desperation by an old guard whose power is waning as EU-inspired changes take hold. Most obvious among them is the army, which has long tried to dictate policy from behind the scenes. The generals suffered a humiliating defeat last year when a campaign to prevent Mr Gul from becoming president backfired. Fearing that Mr Gul would rubber stamp AK-inspired laws, they went as far as to threaten a coup. Judges weighed in on the army's side and Mr Gul was forced to withdraw after the Constitutional Court upheld opposition claims that parliament lacked a quorum during a first round of balloting.

But AK's big electoral win allowed Mr Gul to revive his presidential ambitions and to claim the post in a fresh vote. Meddling by the army probably helped to bolster AK's ratings. A defiant Mr Erdogan has predicted that efforts to ban his party will have the same effect now. In any case, most outlawed parties resurrect themselves under a new name. So why bother trying to ban AK? Some pundits speculate that, rather than closing the party, the court will bar Mr Erdogan and a few of his lieutenants from politics. Without its charismatic leader the party would disintegrate, allowing the secular opposition to seize power again.

But things may not be that simple. Mr Erdogan is threatening to tweak the constitution to make it harder to ban political parties. He would then seek a referendum on the changes. Opposition leaders give warning that such “provocations” would lead to more tensions. AK officials counter that the greater risk is if their disgruntled supporters disregard Mr Erdogan's appeals for calm and take to the streets. Violence might ensue. Either way, Turkey's future is looking decidedly more unsure.