Kenya faces chaos after Kibaki victory

Kenya was on the brink of chaos and its democratic credentials in tatters on Sunday night as President Mwai Kibaki was sworn in for a second term after an election that the opposition and independent observers said was not credible.

The east African country has been regarded as one of the continent’s most stable and open democracies, but its reputation crumbled over the weekend as the results of the poll were delayed, reports of irregularities multiplied and violence flared.

The electoral commission said on Sunday that Mr Kibaki secured 46.7 per cent of the vote, versus 44.3 per cent for Raila Odinga. Minutes later, as the president was sworn in during a hurried ceremony, riots broke out and killings were reported in Nairobi and elsewhere.

Earlier in the day Mr Odinga said: “Kenyans will not accept the results of a rigged election. No force will stop Kenyans attaining what they want. The River Nile is unstoppable. It must flow to the sea.”

The government, which accused him of inciting violence, blocked broadcasts of subsequent opposition press conferences.

Kenya is at risk of entering the most violent chapter in its post-independence history if the disputed elections ignite ethnic tensions that underlie the country’s politics. Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga are from rival tribes and much public discontent with the president comes from a sense he has tightened his tribe’s grip on power and wealth.

Kwamchetsi Makokha, a columnist for the Daily Nation, said: “There is a big, 40-year grudge against the Kikuyu [Mr Kibaki’s tribe]. It will not be chaos for one night and back to normal the next day. The disaffection is much deeper than that.”

Koki Muli, the head of the Institute for Education in Democracy, said: “This is the saddest day in the history of democracy in this country. It is a coup d’état. The process does not have integrity and credibility. Do these people not care about legitimacy?”

Diplomats expressed dismay that the electoral process had descended from the orderly queues of voting day into mayhem.

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the European Union’s chief election observer, said the Electoral Commission of Kenya “has not succeeded in establishing the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates. We regret that it has not been possible to address irregularities about which both [EU observers] and the ECK have evidence.”

Suspicions of manipulation were stoked by the disappearance of electoral officials in several constituencies and by discrepancies between results announced at polling stations and those later announced by the ECK. Both sides accused each other of seeking to doctor the results.

Kenya is a tourist hotspot, a regional base for the United Nations and aid organisations, and a hub for multinational companies.

Kepha Ngito, a project officer with the Kibera Community Youth Programme in Nairobi’s biggest slum, said: “It’s all gone crazy. There is fire, tear gas. People are shouting, ‘No Raila, no peace’.”

Analysts said the new Kibaki administration would face serious challenges in governing because of its lack of legitimacy and its poor showing in more credible parliamentary elections.

Mr Kibaki’s vice-president and more than half of his cabinet lost their parliamentary seats and Mr Odinga’s ODM is set to emerge with a commanding majority.

Mr Kibaki swept to power in 2002 after an election that ended Daniel arap Moi’s repressive 24-year regime. But his standing has been undermined by a failure to tackle corruption and perceived ethnic favouritism.