Bush Sticks With Musharraf as Pakistan Democracy Push Stumbles

Dec. 31 -- Hours before she was assassinated on Dec. 27, Benazir Bhutto was working on edits for a new book, ``Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy, and the West.''

The title could have summed up President George W. Bush's strategy of pushing for democracy in Muslim nations as a way to fight Islamic terrorism since the Sept. 11 attacks. A piece of that strategy was buried with Bhutto on Dec. 28.

Bush's goal in Pakistan is to transform the nuclear-armed nation into a working democracy committed to defeating al-Qaeda and its loyalists. Now, with Pakistan's most popular politician gone, no obvious replacement in sight and rioting across the country, U.S. policy makers must decide how much support to give President Pervez Musharraf, the general who seized power in 1999, and whom Bhutto accused of cohabiting with extremists.

The ``big and fundamental question'' for the U.S. is, ``are you still building your policy around Musharraf, or is this the point where you can pull away and broaden the perspective?'' said Teresita Schaffer, a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Bush's support for Musharraf hasn't changed, an administration official said, adding that the U.S. sees itself as playing a supporting role as Pakistan decides how to move forward on the path of democracy.

The death of Bhutto, 54, followed on the heels of other setbacks to Bush's pro-democracy efforts in the Islamic world, including the sectarian bloodshed that has undermined Iraq's government and the U.S.-backed Palestinian elections that ended up bringing the militant group Hamas to power last year.

`No Good Alternatives'

In Pakistan, ``there are no good alternatives for the administration,'' said Bruce Riedel, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and a Pakistan expert at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy in Washington. ``There is nobody who can assume Bhutto's position.''

Bush, 61, met with his national security team on Dec. 28 via videoconference from his ranch in Crawford, Texas. Among the participants were Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, Admiral William Fallon, head of the U.S. Central Command, and General Michael Hayden, director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Bush told his advisers the U.S. must support democracy in Pakistan and continue to help in that country's effort to combat terrorism, spokesman Scott Stanzel said in an e-mailed statement.

Fighting Extremists

A senior U.S. military official said one possible outcome of Bhutto's death is improved cooperation with Pakistan in fighting militants. The Pakistanis now realize they have a serious problem and may be willing to improve their cooperation with the U.S. in fighting Taliban and al-Qaeda extremists in the poorly policed area on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the military official said.

Pakistan's interior ministry said Dec. 28 that Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani Taliban commander, was responsible for Bhutto's assassination. Mehsud denied the charge, Agence France- Presse reported, citing a spokesman.

The Bush administration is making contact with opposition figures to continue its push for democracy in Pakistan. In the immediate aftermath of Bhutto's assassination, while Bush called Musharraf, Rice, 53, called the vice president of Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, who Bhutto's husband said yesterday will be the candidate for prime minister.

Reaching Out to Sharif

U.S. officials at the embassy in Islamabad also reached out to Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister like Bhutto. Sharif, 58, heads the Pakistan Muslim League. While Sharif's party has threatened to boycott the Jan. 8 elections, it said yesterday that it would participate.

U.S. officials, in their contacts with the various Pakistani political parties, ``reiterated the point that we believe it's important that the political process, the process of developing Pakistan's democracy, continue,'' State Department spokesman Tom Casey said Dec. 28.

Casey said the U.S. is encouraging Sharif and all political parties to participate in the elections.

With the democracy push, the U.S. has pumped more than $10 billion into Pakistan since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in an effort largely to transform the country into an ally that can fight Islamic militants effectively.

``The most important challenge for Pakistan and the United States is what I would describe as the pacification of the northwest frontier,'' said Robert Grenier, CIA station chief in Islamabad from 1999 until 2002.

``There's no quick military solution to that problem,'' Grenier said. ``What we're talking about is the necessity of a protracted counterinsurgency campaign, and that's going to require a combination of military pressure, economic development and political development in those areas. And I think it's very important for the U.S. to sustain support for that effort.''